POLS 340: Political Analysis
(Spring
2005)
Prof. Edward Kwon
Northern
Office: Zulauf 402
Department of Political Science
Phone: 7537055
Class: T & TH
Email: edteaching@yahoo.com Class Room: DU
170 Lab
Office Hours: TH
& by
appointment
This course is designed to acquaint the student with basic skills and research tools for political inquiry and quantitative analysis. We will trace all steps of the research process  asking the research question, formulating the hypothesis, collecting data, analyzing data, and evaluating the hypothesis  for empirical analysis, and learn a variety of research and analytical techniques. These techniques encompass library research, bibliographic search, Internet searching skill, use of computer, data collection, survey, interview, questionnaire, content analysis, sampling, descriptive and inferential statistics, and writing and reviewing a research report.
The course
mainly focuses on empirical political analysis. Our examples cover
international relations, comparative politics, American politics, and other
subfields of political science that are based on empirical evidence. In
addition, the course will explore various hot current issues in the real world.
For instance, American voting behavior,
the elections 2004 voting turnout, the emotional response to September
11 terrorist attacks, perception of the further risk of terrorist attacks,
public opinion about war against
The lecturer assumes that the student has no serious background in computer software statistical packages for social science research and basic statistics. To provide the essential methods and concepts for empirical and quantitative analysis of political phenomena to the student, this course will include the theoretical understanding of basic statistics and the practical use of data analysis software (statistical package for social research, SPSS) in DuSable 170 computer lab. Sometimes students will do field work in and off campus to collect data for these course examples. By the end of the semester, it is expected that students who have successfully completed this course will have a strong foundation of empirical research tools and quantitative techniques for further research work.
This course consists of theoretical lessons by the instructor and
practical training for the student in class and the computer lab. Theoretical
notes and regular lab assignments will be given before each class so that the
student has the opportunity to practice research skills and quantitative
political analysis. In each session, short quizzes will be required in order to
check students’ understanding of the class. In addition, brief discussions
about the current hot topics will encourage the student to build a critical
research strategy.
1) Attendance and Class Discussion (20%)
Ontime class attendance and continuous participation for class
discussion are considered significant parts of getting a good grade and are
essential for students to accomplishing this course objective. Students should attend
each computer lab and read the theoretical notes and assignments ahead of
class. Through the class discussion, students share their idea with other
students and compare their own perspective with different others viewpoints
attentively. Students who miss three classes cannot get credit.
2) Inclass Finalterm Examination (20%)
There is one inclass finalexamination to test the theoretical
understanding of important concepts and research skills of the course. The
instructor will have a review session before the examination to help students.
The questions in this exam will be a combination of short answers, essay
questions, and correct answer selection.
3) Assignments (40%)
The assignments include doing library research and bibliographic work,
research design and proposal, formulating a questionnaire, collecting and
presenting data, and calculating statistical tests. Each assignment will be
graded on a 010 scale (0: not turned in, 15: poor or delayed, 67:
acceptable, 89: good, 10: excellent).
Various assignments will be given, such as;
(1) HandWritten Summary Note of Essential Statistical
Concepts and Formulas
(20 pages – Due:
(2) Spreadsheet and Graph Analysis of Voting Patterns in the
(3) Library Research and Bibliographic Work
(4) Research Proposal
(5)
(6) Essential Statistical Concepts and Formulas
(7) Statistical Analysis
(Univariate, Bivariate, ANOVA, and Regression)
4) Group Project and Presentation (20%)
Each group of student will be given a group project and will present a
paper based on their statistical research work in the last week’s session. The
research paper should include statistical research results with an explanation.
Each group should hand in all respondents’ questionnaires and a CD on which
Excel format survey data is saved.
Required Books
Jarol B. Manheim, and Richard C. Rich, Empirical Political Analysis: Research
Methods
in Political Science, 6^{th} ed.
(
Philip H. Pollock
III, An SPSS Companion to Political
Science (
Press, 2003).
* This package is installed in the DuSable Hall 170 computer lab.
Optional Books
Chava FrankfortNachmias and Anna LeonGuerrero, Social Statistics for A Diverse
Society (
Earl Babbie, The
Practice of Social Research, 10^{th} ed. (
2004).
Peter M. Nardi, Doing
Survey Research: A Guide to Quantitative Method (
Allyn and Bacon, 2003)
Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific
Inference
in Qualitative Research (
1994).
“Under section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, NIU
is committed to making reasonable accommodations for persons with documented
disabilities. Those students with disabilities that may have some impact on
their coursework and for which they may require accommodations should notify
the Center for AccessAbility Resources (CAAR) on the fourth floor of the 
Week 1 (Jan 17, 19): The Research
Process
Course Introduction
The Research Process
 The Formulation of Theory
 The Operationalization of Theories
 The Selection of Appropriate Research Techniques
 The Analysis of Data
 Interpretation of the Results
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 1.
**
Nardi, Chap. 1 & 2.
**
Chava FrankfortNachmias and Anna LeonGuerrero, Social Statistics for A Diverse Society (
O Assignment 1: Essential Statistical Concepts and Formulas
Due: Feb. 2
Week 2 (Jan 24, 26)
Concept and
Hypotheses in Political Science
 The Nature of Social Science Theory
 The Logic of
 Components of Science Theory
 The Role of
Hypotheses
 Formulating
Hypotheses
Collecting Data
 Level of Measurement
 Discrete and Continuous Variables
Analyzing Data and Evaluating the Hypotheses
 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics
 Evaluating the Hypotheses
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 2.
** Nardi, Chap. 2.
** FrankfortNachmias and LeonGuerrero. pp.1226.
Week 3 (Jan 31, Feb 2) Graph
Analysis *Computer Lab Class
(DuSable 170)
Spreadsheets and Graph Analysis
Microsoft Excel
 Starting Excel
 Basic Skills
 Formula
 Improving the Worksheet Layout
Describing the Data: Construction of Tables, Charts, and Diagrams
 The Enumerative Table
 The Line Diagram
 The Pie Diagram and the Bar Chart
 The Bilateral Bar Chart
 The Contingency Table
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 13.
** User’s Manuel of Microsoft Excel
O
Assignment 2: Spreadsheet and Graph Analysis of Voting Patterns in the
Due: Feb. 9
Week 4 (Feb 7, 9): Bibliographic and Library Search
 Using the Existing Literature
 Political Science journals
 Bibliographic Sources
 Interpretation of the Results
Source of Credibility
 Primary and Secondary Sources
 Books of
 Mass Media
 Internet Searching Skill
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 3.
Thursday (Feb 9) Computer Lab Class
 Finding Books on Your Research Topic
 Finding Journal Articles
 Internet Search Engine
 Search Library Catalog
O
Lab Assignment: Library Research and Bibliographic Work
Due: Feb 9
Week 5 (Feb 14, 16):
Research Design
 Three Purposes of Research
 Coping with Alternative Rival Hypotheses through Research Design
 Experimental Research Designs
 Field Experiments
and Nonexperimental Designs
 Creating a
Research Design and Proposal
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 5.
** Earl Babbie, The
Practice of Social Research, 9^{th} ed. (
** Janet B. Johnson and Richard A. Joslyn, Political Science Research Methods, 3^{rd} ed. (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1995), pp. 111152.
O
Assignment 3: Research Proposal
Due: Feb 23
Week 6 (Feb 21, 23): Sampling/ Scaling
Techniques/ Coding
Sampling
 Representative Sample
 Random Sampling
Scaling Techniques
 Scale Construction
 Various Scaling Methods
Coding
 Codebook and the Coding Sheet
 Data Entry and Data Processing
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 6. 8. & 12.
** Nardi, Chap. 5.
** Babbie, Chap 7. 13. & 14.
Tuesday (Feb 23): Group Project Discussion
Week 7 (Feb 28, Mar 2): Survey Research
 Survey Design
 Stages of the Survey Process
 Planning and Sampling
 Monitoring and Surveying
Interviewing
 Sample Survey Interviewing
 Question Wording
 Selecting Interviewers and Elite Interviewing
 Specialized Interviewing
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 7.
**
Nardi, Chap. 4.
O
Assignment 4:
Due: Mar 28
1.
 Each group must collect more than 100
samples
 Record the survey result into
the Excel Coding Sheet
2. Choose one of the following topics or any topics based on your
interests
 Emotional Response to the September 11^{th} terrorist attacks
 Perception of the further risk of terrorist attack
 War in
 Others (Affirmative action, Same Sex Marriage, Gun Controls, etc.)
** Directions
1) Please arrange to meet with the instructor to discuss your survey questionnaire.
2) Collect more than 100 samples at least
3) Prepare for a Codebook, Coding Sheet
4) Record your survey results in your MS Excel Coding table
5) Save your results in a CDRW
6) Submit your CDRW, all respondents’ questionnaires
à Your data set will be used by your classmates for our statistical analyses.
Week 8 (Mar 7, 9) Computer Lab Class
Questionnaire Construction
 Content and Format
 Wording Your Question
Thursday (Mar 9): Content Analysis
 Quantification in Content Analysis
 Undertaking a Substantive/ Structural Content Analysis
 Finding Categories
 Sampling
 Liability and Limitations
Writing and Reviewing a Research Report
 The Plan and the Structure
 The Style
 The Title and Abstract
 A Checklist for Judging Research
** Manheim and Rich. Chap. 10 & 21.
* SPRING BREAK: Mar. 1119
Week 9 (Mar 21, 23) Computer Lab Class
Microsoft Access (Database)
 Creating a Database
 New table and Relationship
 Quiry and Report
O Lab Assignment: Database Construction of Your Bibliography and Political Science Journal list
** User’s Manuel of Microsoft Access
** From next class,
we will meet at DuSable 170 Computer Lab
SPSS Basic
 Beginning SPSS
 SPSS Data Table
 Data Coding and Collection
 Formula Editor
 The Keypad Functions
 Creating a New Data Table
 Working with Graphs and Reports
Week 11 (April 4, 6): Univariate Analysis
One Variable, One Sample
 Distributions: Probability and RealWorld Sample Distribution
 Describing Distribution of Values
 Generating Random Data
 Histograms
 Statistical Inference on the Mean
Measure of Central Tendency
 The Mode, Mean, and Median
 The Median
 The Shape of Distribution
 The Characteristics of the Normal Distribution
Measure of Variability
 The Variation
 The Range
 The Standard Deviation
** FrankfortNachmias and LeonGuerrero. pp.109182.
** Nardi, Chap. 6.
Week 12 (April 11, 13): Bivariate
Analysis
Bivariate Analysis (The Difference between Two Means)
 Chisquare Test (Crosstabulation Analysis)
 Student’s Ttest
 Two Independent Groups
 Matched Pair Groups
 Display and Compare the Means
** Nardi, Chap. 7.
** FrankfortNachmias and LeonGuerrero. pp.201240.
O
Assignment 5: Data Analysis I: Univariate & Bivariate Analyses
Due: April 20
Week 13 (April 18, 20): Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
 What is Oneway Layout?
 Oneway Analysis of Variance
 Twoway Analysis of Variance
 Multipleway Analysis of Variance
 Power and Unequal Variance
** Nardi, Chap. 8.
O
Assignment 6: Group Research Paper
Due: April 27
Week 14 (April 25, 27): Regression
Analysis
Correlation
 Simple Correlation
 Partial Correlation and Multiple Correlation
Simple and Multiple Regression
 Least Squares
 Fitting a Line and Testing the Slope
 Examine Residuals
 Simple Regression Model
 Multiple Regression Model
** FrankfortNachmias and LeonGuerrero. pp.297327.
O
Assignment 7: Data Analysis II: ANOVA and Regression
Due: May 2
 Essential Statistical Concept and Formulas
 More than 20 pages
 Definition, Formula, Example, etc
** List of Statistical
1. Measures of Central Tendency (the Mode, Median, and Mean)
2. Measures of Variability (the Range, Frequency, Variance, and Standard Deviation)
3. Normal Curve
4. Sampling Error, Standard Error of the Mean
5. Confidence Intervals, Degree of Freedom
6. The Null and Alternative Hypothesis, Hypothesis Test (Type I and II Errors)
7. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
8. Correlation and Regression
9. Independent and Dependent Variables
11. T test
12. R square
13. Z score
** Example
** Variance  Variance is a measure of the spread of a series of scores  The larger the variance the more the data items are spread about the mean  A variance of zero indicates no spread at all; in other words, all the scores have the same value …………………………..
Variance Fomula
S²
= variance Σ (X X)² = sum of the squared deviations from the meann = total number of score 
Appendix II
No 
Title 
Due 
1 
Hand Written Summary Note
 Essential Statistical Concept and Formulas 
Feb 2 
2 
Spreadsheet and Graph Analysis 
Feb 9 
3 
Research Proposal 
Feb 23 
4 
Group Project – Survey Data 
Mar 28 
5 
Data Analysis I: Uni and Bivaariate 
April 20 
6 
Group Research Paper 
April 27 
7 
Data Analysis II: ANOVA and Regression 
May 2 



Thank You!