POLS 240 = Professor Mikel Wyckoff

POLS=20 641

Introductory=20 Analysis of Political Data

Fall=20 2010

Professor=20 Mikel Wyckoff

Zulauf=20 425 753-7039 mwyckoff@niu.edu

Office=20 Hours: M = 10:30-12:00;=20 Thurs 2-3:30

& by=20 appointment

This=20 course provides an introduction to basic statistical methods frequently=20 encountered in the social sciences. =20 Topics we will cover include: (1) descriptive statistics (for = example,=20 means and standard deviations); (2) statistical inference (random = sampling and=20 hypothesis testing with the aid of statistical significance tests); and = (3)=20 measures of relationship and association. =20 Students will also get an introduction to = SPSS=20 for Windows, a widely used data analysis program. In addition to preparing you = to do=20 considerable data analysis on your own, these concepts and skills should = provide=20 good foundations for POLS 642, a course that takes an in-depth look at=20 regression analysis.

Although=20 I personally enjoy statistical methods very much, I suspect that at = least some=20 of you approach this class a bit grudgingly and with a certain amount of = anxiety. Let me assure = everyone=20 that the course is not that = difficult=20 (almost everyone who is willing to put in the time and effort can expect = to earn=20 a respectable grade). Let = me=20 suggest, furthermore, that if you give the material a fair chance it is = likely=20 that you will find these research tools useful (at the very least) and = indeed,=20 interesting. For those = experiencing=20 genuine fear and anxiety, the textbook's section on =93Overcoming Math = Anxiety=94=20 may be helpful.

REQUIRED=20 READINGS

The=20 following books are required and should be available at local = bookstores. If not, they are readily = available from=20 online sources. =20

=B7 =20 John=20 H. Kranzler, Statistics for the = Terrified, Prentice Hall, 4^th ed., 2007. =

=B7 =20 Michael=20 S. Lewis-Beck,=20 Applied Regression: An = Introduction,=20 Sage University Paper #22.

Additional=20 required readings, in the form of handouts or readings that can be = located=20 online, also will be assigned.

OTHER=20 POTENTIALLY USEFUL READINGS

In=20 this course we will spend a certain amount of time computing statistics = by hand,=20 but we will primarily make use a statistical software package called=20 SPSS=20 when we analyze data. = Over the=20 years, SPSS=20 has become increasingly user friendly and I believe that all of you can = learn=20 the basics of the program simply by watching my demonstrations in = class. Those who wish to become even = more=20 proficient at using SPSS,=20 however, may wish to consult one of the following guides: &n= bsp; =20

=B7 =20 Philip=20 H. Pollock III, An SPSS = Companion to=20 Political Analysis, CQ Press, 2008.

=B7 =20 Marija=20 Norusis, SPSS=20 16.0 Guide to Data Analysis,=20 2/E, Prentice Hall, 2009.

=20

OTHER=20 REQUIREMENTS

Exams. There will be three = examinations--two=20 midterms and a final. = Together the=20 three exams will constitute 70% of your final grade, with Exams 1 and 2 = worth=20 20% each and cumulative Exam 3 worth 30%. =20 A small component of each exam (typically dealing with = definitional=20 issues) will be closed book/closed notes, but when working data analysis = problems you are welcome to consult your textbook and your class notes = if need=20 be. An inexpensive = electronic=20 calculator will probably be useful when taking the exams.

Computer=20 Exercises. The remaining 30% of your = grade will be=20 determined by your performance on computer assignments which will = require the=20 use of SPSS=20 statistical software available in the main SOCQRL (in 222 DuSable; http://www.socqrl.niu.edu/ ) and = in the=20 POLS GA Office located in 476 DuSable. =20 Course fees enable you to use these facilities. No one should feel intimidated = by these=20 assignments. No prior = knowledge of=20 statistics is required, the software is user friendly, and experienced = lab=20 assistants will be available (at the SOCQRL) to help with the = assignments when=20 needed. Of course, all = students=20 must do their own assignments. = This=20 means learning to use the required software on your own, conducting your = own=20 analyses, obtaining your own output, and writing your own reports. Note that the exams in this = course=20 require you to conduct analyses using SPSS,=20 so do spend enough time with the SPSS=20 software to feel comfortable with it. =20

Take-Home=20 Problems. Throughout the semester I will = assign=20 sets of problems for you to work outside of class. I expect you to do these = problems, and=20 we will spend a good deal of time on them in class, but I will not = collect them=20 and grade them. Similar=20 computational problems will appear on the midterm and final exams, so = devoting=20 significant time to the take-home problems is well justified despite the = fact=20 that they will not be graded.

COURSE=20 OUTLINE AND READING ASSIGNMENTS

I. PART ONE: Descriptive=20 Statistics

=B7 =20 Introduction=20 and basic math review =96 Kranzler, Appendix A and Ch. 1-2. =

=B7 =20 Introduction=20 to SPSS=20 =96 Kranzler,=20 Ch.=20 3; Also, run portions of the SPSS=20 tutorial (find at Help).

Do the = introduction and perhaps skim some of the other topics in the = tutorial.

=B7 =20 Variables,=20 Levels of Measurement, Frequency Distributions =96 = Kranzler,=20 Ch.=20 4.

=B7 =20 Measures=20 of Central Tendency and Variation =96 Kranzler,=20 Ch.=20 5. =

=20 SPSS=20 Tutorial: Examining = Summary=20 Statistics for Individual Variables.

=B7 =20 The=20 Normal Distribution =96 Kranzler,=20 Ch.=20 6.

=B7 =20 Percentiles=20 and Standardized Scores =96 Kranzler, Ch. 7, pp. 71-77 and 80-86.

EXAM=20 I: Monday,=20 September 27

II. PART TWO: Data Analysis =96 Using = Independent=20 Variables To Explain Dependent Variables

A. Analyzing Categorical Data = with=20 Crosstabs

1. Introduction to crosstabs; = relationships=20 and measures of association =20

=B7 =20 The=20 Crosstabs Procedure =96 see =93How to Read a Crosstabulation=94=20 (handout).

=20 SPSS=20 Tutorial: Crosstabulation = Tables

=B7 =20 Hypothesis=20 Testing I: The chi-square = test =96=20 see =93The Chi-Square Test of Significance=94 (handout).

=B7 =20 Measures=20 of association for nominal and ordinal Data. =96 See =93Measures of = Association,=94=20 pp. 144-151 for now (handout).

=B7 =20 Holding=20 =93third=94 variables constant using crosstabs =96 Additional reading=20 TBA.

2. Thinking about inferential = statistics=20 (How do significance tests and confidence intervals work?)=20

=B7 =20 Random=20 Samples and the need for Inferential Statistics

=B7 =20 The=20 concept of a sampling distribution

=B7 =20 Formal=20 hypothesis testing; type I and II errors =96 = Kranzler,=20 Ch.=20 10.

B. Analyzing Interval Level = Dependent=20 Variables and Categorical Independent = Variables

1. The t-test =96 Analyzing = differences of=20 means observed in two groups

=B7 =20 Additional=20 Thoughts on Sampling Distributions; Standard = Errors.

=B7 =20 Hypothesis=20 Testing II: The t-test = =96 Kranzler,=20 Ch. 11. =

2. ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) = =96 Analyzing=20 differences of means observed in three or more = groups

=B7 =20 Hypothesis=20 Testing III: The F-test = and=20 Analysis of Variance =96 Kranzler, Ch. 12. =20

EXAM=20 2: Monday, November = 8

C. Analyzing Two or More = Continuous=20 Variables =96 Bivariate and Multivariate Regression=20 Analysis

=B7 =20 Measures=20 for interval data: = Pearson=92s r and=20 the slope of the regression line

=20 Kranzler, Ch. 8. Lewis-Beck, pp. 9-25,=20 43-47.

=B7 =20 Significance=20 tests and confidence intervals =96 Lewis-Beck, pp. = 30-37.

=B7 =20 Multivariate=20 analysis =96 Lewis-Beck, pp. 47-58.

=B7 =20 Dummy=20 variable analysis =96 Lewis-Beck, pp. 66-71.

EXAM 3: Monday, December 6, = 4-5:50=20 p.m.