Blagojevich ahead in DeKalb County, NIU class finds

by Joe King

Voters in the traditional Republican stronghold of DeKalb County appear ready to break ranks in the upcoming gubernatorial election.

According to results of a poll released Oct. 11 by the Northern Illinois University Public Opinion Laboratory, 49 percent of voters said that they plan to vote for Democrat Rod Blagojevich for governor in the upcoming election. Republican Jim Ryan was a distant second with 33 percent of the vote, while 13 percent remained undecided and 4 percent favored Libertarian Cal Skinner.

The results are based upon telephone interviews with 519 randomly selected DeKalb County residents who said that they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The results have a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent. The poll was part of a political science class project and was designed, administered and analyzed by Northern Illinois University students in a political science class.

Among the most interesting findings, said Barbara Burrell, associate director of the lab, and teacher of this course, was the number of self-identified Republicans who were planning to turn their back on their party in this gubernatorial election. There were twice as many Republicans (18 percent) who said they were going to vote for the Democrat, as there were Democrats who said they were going to vote for the Republican (9 percent).

"I thought that was quite interesting as DeKalb County has historically been a very strong Republican county," Burrell said. "In open-ended questions that asked respondents why they were not voting for Ryan, many pointed to the scandals surrounding the current Republican governor."

DeKalb County voters also crossed party lines in the race for U.S. senator, with 48 percent of respondents saying they plan to vote for incumbent Dick Durbin. Twenty-four percent of respondents supported Jim Durkin, while 25 percent remained undecided. Such support for Durbin, a Democrat, was not surprising, Burrell said, considering that he is an incumbent running against a little-known challenger.

In other races, DeKalb County voters appear much more apt to vote along historical party lines, but that support was not as strong as might be expected.

Republican candidate for attorney general Joe Birkett was favored by 40 percent of those polled, easily outpacing Democrat Lisa Madigan who was supported by 31 percent of those polled. Nearly a quarter of all respondents remained undecided on this race and could sway the outcome, Burrell said.

"While the gubernatorial findings closely tracked state-wide polls, this one was a bit different," Burrell said, pointing out that Madigan leads Birkett in other surveys. "The lack of support for Madigan might also indicate that some of the scandal surrounding her and her father may be hurting her. But in such a Republican county, it might be a bit surprising that Birkett's lead isn't larger. The high number of undecided voters also may indicate that people don't care much for either candidate."

The student-run poll also found that, in the age of the information superhighway, candidates are still better off buying television or radio time than building Web sites. Only 6 percent of respondents said they sought election information on the Internet, while 73 percent reported hearing or seeing a campaign ad.

"If I were a candidate, I would be out there getting up yard signs and knocking on doors," Burrell said.

In all, she said, the exercise was a good experience for students.

"So much weight is put on public opinion polls these days, so I wanted students to have a thorough understanding of them," Burrell said. "I also wanted them to have the opportunity to have a thorough conversation with people, to listen to them talk about who they are going to vote for and have them articulate their opinions."

10/21/02