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Contact: Joe King, Office of Public Affairs
(815) 753-4299

October 18, 2004

NIU student poll gives Bush the edge

DEKALB, Ill--As in much of the country, the presidential race in DeKalb County is almost too close to call.

According to a survey conducted by NIU political science students between Oct. 5 and 11, Republican George W. Bush would have eked out a narrow victory over Democrat John Kerry, grabbing 44.7 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 40.9. However, with a 4.4 percent margin of error, the two candidates are virtually neck-and-neck.

“Statistically speaking, it’s just about a dead heat. The actual result could come down to who the undecided voters choose,” says Barbara Burrell, the NIU professor who teaches the class that conducted the poll. Burrell is also associate director of the university’s respected Public Opinion Laboratory.

The poll, which surveyed 508 registered voters found that, like most of the nation, DeKalb County supporters of the two candidates held vastly different views.

For instance, among Bush supporters, 71 percent were satisfied with the way the country is going and 51 percent considered terrorism to be the most important issue of the campaign. Conversely, 93 percent of Kerry supporters were dissatisfied with the way government is going and only 9 percent considered terrorism the top issue. Instead Kerry backers were more inclined to identify the economy/jobs (34 percent) or Iraq (35 percent) as the top issue.

“These huge disparities speak to the differences between the political parties today – within the context of American politics it still means something to be a Democrat or a Republican,” said Burrell.

The 13 percent of voters who were undecided tended to align more closely with the Kerry camp. In that group, 75 percent were dissatisfied with how the country is going, 37 percent considered the economy/jobs the top issue, while about 17 percent selected either terrorism, Iraq or health care as the most pressing issue.

Should those attitudes carry over in the voting booth, it could mark the third time in four elections that a Democratic candidate scratches out a victory in the traditional Republican stronghold of DeKalb County, Burrell said. In fact, it looks as though that is the only way such a thing could occur because voters on both sides are very entrenched. Of those expressing a preference for a candidate, 89 percent said that they were certain in their vote. In fact, only 19 percent said they had changed their mind at any point during the campaign.

One area where there was more agreement, regardless of party affiliation, was in the Senate race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Alan Keyes. Obama was the choice of 61 percent of the voters to 18 percent for Keyes.

Complete poll results can be found online at: http://www.niu.edu/PubAffairs/RELEASES/2004/oct/poll.htm.

Burrell has had students conduct polls of actual races in the past and they have proven a fair barometer of actual outcomes—however, she cautions, in a race as close as this presidential election, being “right” is a difficult thing.

Regardless, the experience was good for students, she said.

“I think they enjoyed it once they started talking to people. Some were puzzled by how inconsistent some people could be, and others were struck by how consistent some people could be,” Burrell said. “And I think they were surprised by the extent to which people would talk to them and elaborate on their responses – once they got going they really wanted to talk.”

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